{"id":13325,"date":"2017-06-24T17:54:33","date_gmt":"2017-06-24T16:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fjala.info\/?p=13325"},"modified":"2017-11-17T00:03:59","modified_gmt":"2017-11-17T00:03:59","slug":"gjermania-rrezikon-qe-te-shembet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/gjermania-rrezikon-qe-te-shembet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cGjermania rrezikon q\u00eb t\u00eb shembet\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

PRISHTIN\u00cb | 24 QER 2017<\/em> – Nga Ekonomia Online<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedim me George Friedman<\/strong>, themelues dhe CEO<\/strong> i Geopolitical Futures<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Teuton\u00ebt p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb etnin\u00eb e par\u00eb t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Pse Uashingtoni nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb progjerman?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Si\u00e7 u ka ndodhur edhe emigrant\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb shekuj kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, gjerman\u00ebt kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb Bot\u00ebn e Re me objektivin e nd\u00ebrprerjes s\u00eb \u00e7do lidhjeje me atdheun e tyre, p\u00ebr ta mbyllur p\u00ebrfundimisht me t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn. N\u00eb shum\u00eb raste arratiseshin nga vendi i origjin\u00ebs. Ndarja e k\u00ebrkuar apo e detyruar i ka penguar q\u00eb t\u00eb veproni n\u00eb favor t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb tjera gjermanike t\u00eb prejardhjes (Austri, Zvic\u00ebr, Prusi, Bavari). Ve\u00e7 t\u00eb tjerash, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtonin nj\u00eb monolit, gjermano \u2013 amerikan\u00ebt qen\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm midis tyre p\u00ebr nga gjuha, besimi fetar, prejardhja sociale. N\u00eb fakt ishte e pamundur q\u00eb bavarez\u00eb, sakson\u00eb, turingasm, prusian\u00eb, katolik\u00eb, luteran\u00eb, konservator\u00eb, socialist\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb mblidheshin n\u00eb nj\u00eb trup unik, n\u00eb gjendje q\u00eb t\u00eb influenconte politik\u00ebn e jashtme t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. P\u00ebrkundrazi, ishte e pashmangshme q\u00eb t\u00eb asimiloheshin, q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebheshin pjes\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00ebse e popullit amerikan. Sakt\u00ebsisht \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb ka ndodhur.<\/p>\n

E megjithat\u00eb p\u00ebr shum\u00eb koh\u00eb ka ekzistuar frika se mos gjerman\u00ebt mbeteshin t\u00eb huaj nga shoq\u00ebria amerikane. Kur ka ndodhur p\u00ebrfundimisht asimilimi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pikat e kthes\u00ebs kan\u00eb qen\u00eb dy luft\u00ebrat bot\u00ebrore. T\u00eb d\u00ebrguar n\u00eb front p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar m\u00eb par\u00eb perandorit\u00eb e Boshtit dhe m\u00eb pas Rajhun e Tret\u00eb, gjermano \u2013 amerikan\u00ebt kuptuan papritmas se nuk qen\u00eb m\u00eb gjerman\u00eb. At\u00ebhere zgjodh\u00ebn Amerik\u00ebn, duke e mohuar atdheun e origjin\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre. Aq sa si n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Par\u00eb, ashtu edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb Dyt\u00ebn, n\u00eb krye t\u00eb trupave amerikane u vendos\u00ebn komandant\u00eb me origjin\u00eb gjermane, t\u00eb till\u00eb si John Pershing, Chester Nimitz, Carl Spaatz dhe Presidenti i ardhsh\u00ebm Dwight Eisenhower. Nj\u00eb zgjedhje q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshiu dhe b\u00ebri t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegjsh\u00ebm Deutschamerikan-\u00ebt. pse jo edhe demonstrimi i preksh\u00ebm sesi vet\u00eb historia po p\u00ebrshpejtonte nj\u00eb proces tashm\u00eb n\u00eb veprim.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrtej gjeografis\u00eb, cili ka qen\u00eb kontributi kryesor gjerman p\u00ebr kultur\u00ebn amerikane?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vet\u00ebdija se ishte e nevojshme p\u00ebr t\u2019u pajisur me nj\u00eb klas\u00eb drejtuese t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb lart\u00eb, e p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb nga sh\u00ebrb\u00ebtor\u00eb t\u00eb shtetit. Burokracia n\u00eb kuptimin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb termit, kategori at\u00ebhere e panjohur n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara. Nj\u00eb koncept i p\u00ebrpunuar fillimisht nga Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel<\/em>, i p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb Bot\u00ebn e Re nga emigrant\u00ebt gjerman\u00eb dhe i p\u00ebrqafuar nga amerikan\u00ebt si funksional me makin\u00ebn federale. Akoma m\u00eb kuadrin filozofik, n\u00eb vitet Gjasht\u00ebdhjet\u00eb t\u00eb N\u00ebnt\u00ebqind\u00ebs qe e ashtuquajtura Shkoll\u00eb e Frankfurtit q\u00eb rriti t\u00eb majt\u00ebn amerikan\u00eb t\u00eb mark\u00ebs progresiste, e ngjitur n\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb sken\u00ebs gjat\u00eb manifestimeve kund\u00ebr luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Vietnam. Nj\u00eb e majt\u00eb duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb radikale sesa ajo autoktone. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb q\u00ebllim t\u00eb till\u00eb rezultoi thelb\u00ebsore vepra e Herbert Marcuse<\/em>, filozof berlinas i emigruar n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara n\u00eb vitet Tridhjet\u00eb dhe i b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb i njohur gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb tij t\u00eb m\u00ebsimdh\u00ebnies n\u00eb Harvard.<\/p>\n

Henry Kissinger \u00ebsht\u00eb padyshim nd\u00ebr gjerman\u00ebt m\u00eb influent\u00eb t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs. \u00c7far\u00eb opinion keni p\u00ebr t\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kissinger ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb takticien i jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm. Sigurisht q\u00eb do t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb histori hapja e realizuar ndaj Republik\u00ebs Popullore t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs dhe manovra me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn arriti q\u00eb t\u2019i zhvas\u00eb Egjiptin frontit sovjetik. Por nuk ka qen\u00eb strateg i madh, pasi n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsonte instrumentin ushtarak. P\u00ebr Kissinger vlente pothuajse ekskluzivisht diplomacia, negociata. Nj\u00eb qasje q\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb rezultoi efikase, pasi pas humbjes s\u00eb p\u00ebsuar n\u00eb Vietnam Amerika, perceptohej si n\u00eb mbrojtje. Por nj\u00eb fuqi e madhe duhet t\u00eb dij\u00eb t\u00eb hidhet n\u00eb sulm dhe ta b\u00ebj\u00eb luft\u00ebn n\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme. Nuk mjafton t\u00eb kuptohen dinamikat e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, n\u00ebse nuk je i gatsh\u00ebm q\u00eb t\u2019i trondis\u00ebsh ato.<\/em> Kissinger ishte impenjuar n\u00eb ruajtjen e forc\u00ebs n\u00eb vend q\u00eb ta rriste at\u00eb. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye ka siguruar vet\u00ebm suksese taktike dhe nuk ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e Bashkimit Sovjetik.<\/p>\n

Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb historis\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara kan\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar shum\u00eb shpesh ushtarakisht ambiciet gjeopolitike t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb. \u00c7far\u00eb e b\u00ebn Berlinin kaq t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fakti i vet\u00ebm q\u00eb Gjermania posedon dimension t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm n\u00eb vendin e gabuar. Problem nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb Berlini, sesa nevoja e pashmangshme p\u00ebr Uashingtonin q\u00eb t\u00eb pengoj\u00eb \u00e7do forc\u00eb t\u00eb dominoj\u00eb kontinentin euraziatik, pasi nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e till\u00eb do t\u2019i k\u00ebrc\u00ebnonte kontrollin e rrug\u00ebve detare, n\u00ebnshtres\u00eb e dominimit global. Gjat\u00eb dekadave, gjeografia, demografia dhe teknologjia i kan\u00eb mund\u00ebsuar Berlinit q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb rolin e hegjemonit potencial europian, duke shkaktuar k\u00ebshtu reagimin e p\u00ebrpikt\u00eb t\u00eb Uashingtonit. Por rezultati ka qen\u00eb i nj\u00ebjti kur n\u00eb vend t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb gjetur Bashkimi Sovjetik. Amerika nuk ka as interes special, as ndonj\u00eb gj\u00eb ndaj Gjermanis\u00eb, kufizohet q\u00eb t\u00eb zbatoj\u00eb me vendosm\u00ebri premistat strategjike t\u00eb saj dhe do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen.<\/p>\n

B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb objektiv t\u00eb ndjekur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb shkencore sa nga klasa politike, aq edhe nga agjencit\u00eb federale?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Urgjencat me natyr\u00eb strategjike u imponohen spontanisht politikan\u00ebve dhe aparateve, thjesht p\u00ebr inerci. T\u00eb vendosur n\u00eb nj\u00eb kontekst t\u00eb caktuar, qeniet njer\u00ebzore veprojn\u00eb sa m\u00eb mir\u00eb q\u00eb munden p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur vetveten. E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen edhe p\u00ebr shtetet komb\u00ebtare. Kjo shpjegon se pse politikan\u00ebt jan\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb detyruar q\u00eb t\u00eb hedhin posht\u00eb premtimet e b\u00ebra n\u00eb fushat\u00eb elektorale, apo pse burokrat\u00ebt konsiderohen llogarit\u00ebs t\u00eb pam\u00ebshirsh\u00ebm. Si\u00e7 e dim\u00eb mir\u00eb, \u201cKukuvajka e Minerv\u00ebs<\/em>\u201d e nis fluturimin e saj n\u00eb per\u00ebndim t\u00eb diellit. Ajo q\u00eb ndodh \u00ebsht\u00eb shpesh e lexueshme vet\u00ebm ex post<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Pse n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara e favorizuan ribashkimin gjerman?<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr dy arsye t\u00eb thjeshta. Administrata Bush ishte e vet\u00ebdijshme se ribashkimi ishte i pashmangsh\u00ebm dhe se \u00e7far\u00ebdo tentative amerikane p\u00ebr ta shmangur do t\u00eb rezultonte e kot\u00eb, n\u00eb mos kund\u00ebrprodhuese. Me pak fjal\u00eb: nuk do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb e urt\u00eb t\u2019i kund\u00ebrviheshe rrjedh\u00ebs s\u00eb historis\u00eb. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, aparatet federale menduan se nj\u00eb Gjermani e bashkuar do t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb m\u00eb e dobishme p\u00ebr interesat e superfuqis\u00eb, pasi do t\u00eb pengonte synimet ekspansioniste t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, t\u00eb Franc\u00ebs apo t\u00eb Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar (q\u00eb jo rast\u00ebsisht qen\u00eb kund\u00ebr shkrirjes s\u00eb Bonit me Berlinin<\/em>). Edhe at\u00ebhere, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb arsyetohej n\u00eb raport me vendet e ve\u00e7anta, Shtetet e Bashkuara zbatuan n\u00eb kontekstin europian strategjin\u00eb q\u00eb adoptojn\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do skakier\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme: k\u00ebrkimin e nj\u00eb ekuilibri asetual t\u00eb forc\u00ebs<\/strong>. Qasja klasike e Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar, e rip\u00ebrshtatur me nevojat amerikane dhe e p\u00ebrdorur edhe kund\u00ebr vet\u00eb Londr\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb momenti jeton sot Gjermania?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb moment shum\u00eb kritik. Gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit, Berlini ka krijuar marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie ekonomike t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme dhe rezistenca po aq t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme politike. Elitat e vendeve t\u00eb huaja p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga shk\u00ebmbimet q\u00eb kryejn\u00eb me Gjermanin\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa klasat e mesme \u2013 t\u00eb ul\u00ebta jan\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar. Nga k\u00ebtu lindja e l\u00ebvizjeve proteksioniste dhe antigjermane, t\u00eb kal\u00ebruara n\u00eb nivel komb\u00ebtar nga njer\u00ebz t\u00eb rinj, apo t\u00eb instrumentalizuara nga eksponent\u00eb t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl t\u00eb klas\u00ebs drejtuese. Por Berlini nuk duket n\u00eb gjendje ta tejkaloj\u00eb nj\u00eb impaks t\u00eb till\u00eb, ta ndryshoj\u00eb forc\u00ebn ekonomike t\u00eb tij n\u00eb rend gjeopolitik. P\u00ebrkundrazi, u t\u00ebrhiqet me dyshim k\u00ebtyre fenomeneve. E konsideron t\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm ruajtjen e shk\u00ebmbimeve tregtare: tregohen t\u00eb paditur p\u00ebr mas\u00ebn e vet. Nj\u00eb mosp\u00ebrputhje e till\u00eb rrezikon q\u00eb t\u2019i p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb fatin.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pse Gjermania nuk di t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb perandorin\u00eb q\u00eb rishp\u00ebrndan pasuri, q\u00eb krijon var\u00ebsi midis vetvetes dhe an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb sistemit?<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn arsye sipas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs asnj\u00eb vend europian nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb asimiloj\u00eb emigrant\u00ebt. N\u00eb Gjermani, ashtu si n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb kontinentit, kombi \u00ebsht\u00eb pazgjidhshm\u00ebrisht i lidhur me historin\u00eb, me kultur\u00ebn, me gjuh\u00ebn e nj\u00eb populli t\u00eb caktuar. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ide q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ta p\u00ebrqafoj\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb i huaj, shtet\u00ebsia praktike nuk mund t\u2019i akordohet cilitdo. Asnj\u00eb vend europian nuk gjendet i prekur nga nj\u00eb funksion universal, me detyr\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb rregulloj\u00eb sistemin. Pastaj, Gjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tmerr\u00ebsisht i brisht\u00eb, pasi eksporton pothuajse 50% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb s\u00eb saj, pa kontrolluar rrug\u00ebt detare dhe nuk posedon barriera orografike, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se n\u00eb frontin jugor. Nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi e till\u00eb i ka bindur gjerman\u00ebt p\u00ebr nevoj\u00ebn e p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrimit vet\u00ebm mbi mbijetes\u00ebn n\u00eb kuptimin m\u00eb t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb, pa menduar p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr. Duke v\u00ebn\u00eb k\u00ebshtu n\u00eb l\u00ebvizje nj\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm pervers, q\u00eb shpesh e shtyn Berlinin q\u00eb ta komplikoj\u00eb m\u00eb tej jet\u00ebn.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrshtypja \u00ebsht\u00eb se midis t\u00eb qenit perandori dhe kthimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend konvencional, Gjermania ka zgjedhur q\u00eb ta formalizoj\u00eb sfer\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs n\u00eb zem\u00ebr t\u00eb kontinentit. \u00cbsht\u00eb kjo q\u00eb po ndodh?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I varur nga eksprti dhe q\u00eb synon t\u00eb shmang\u00eb lindjen e poleve industriale n\u00eb vendet limitrofe, objektivi i Berlinit \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj zon\u00ebn eruopiane t\u00eb shk\u00ebmbimit, mund\u00ebsisht duke e pajisur me monedh\u00ebn e tij. Integrimi politik \u2013 nj\u00eb ide amerikane \u2013 ka vler\u00eb dyt\u00ebsore, n\u00eb mos an\u00ebsore. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye Republika Federale nuk synon realisht ta p\u00ebrz\u00ebr\u00eb nga euroja Greqin\u00eb apo Italin\u00eb; p\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn arsye \u00ebsht\u00eb e preokupuar nga dalja e Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar nga tregu i p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt. N\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt, Gjermania do ta pranonte nj\u00eb reduktim t\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs tregtare t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse do t\u00eb detyrohet prej braktisjes s\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb tjera an\u00ebtare. N\u00eb nj\u00eb rast t\u00eb till\u00eb do t\u00eb mblidhet n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs. Nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi konkrete \u2013 megjith\u00ebse prej vullnetit t\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve \u2013 pasi Bashkimi Europian \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb limitet e kolapsit. E pamundur ta imagjinosh p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb form\u00eb at\u00eb zon\u00eb t\u00eb shk\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrthurur me interesat gjermane.<\/p>\n

Do ta konsideronin t\u00eb rrezikshme Shtetet e Bashkuara nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb gjermane t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar mbi Europ\u00ebn e mesme, p\u00ebrfshi pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Skandinavis\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb do t\u00eb varej nga aft\u00ebsia gjermane p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkuar p\u00ebrtej limiteve t\u00eb veta, p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar p\u00ebrreth fuqis\u00eb ekonomike nj\u00eb entitet korrespondues gjeopolitik. N\u00ebse nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e till\u00eb do t\u00eb verifikohej, p\u00ebrball\u00eb mund\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb gjysm\u00ebhegjemoni t\u00eb vendosur n\u00eb kontinentin europian, si gjithmon\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara do t\u00eb reagonin p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrmbysur situat\u00ebn. Por p\u00ebr momentin nuk i nuhaten shenja. P\u00ebr t\u00eb mbijetuar, Berlinit nuk i mjafton Bashkimi Europian n\u00eb depresion, le m\u00eb pastaj nj\u00eb rajon me sip\u00ebrfaqe dhe popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla. As nuk perceptohet nj\u00eb vendosm\u00ebri gjermane p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb komb t\u00eb plot\u00ebsuar, n\u00eb gjendje q\u00eb t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb interesat e veta n\u00eb \u00e7do p\u00ebrmas\u00eb t\u00eb forc\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, prej vitesh raportet bilaterale jan\u00eb mjaft t\u00eb tendosura.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet jan\u00eb t\u00eb komplikuara nga vullneti i Uashingtonit p\u00ebr ta reduktuar deficitin tregtar t\u00eb tij dhe detyruar Berlinin q\u00eb t\u00eb investoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb sigurin\u00eb e tij. N\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen, p\u00ebrplasja mund t\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsohet, por p\u00ebr momentin nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje p\u00ebrcaktuese. P\u00ebrtej disa deklarimeve t\u00eb improvizuara nga ana e disa politikan\u00ebve gjerman\u00eb, Gjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb akoma kund\u00ebr pajisjes s\u00eb instrumentit ushtarak, deri m\u00eb tani ngurruese, q\u00eb t\u2019i rris\u00eb relativisht shpenzimet p\u00ebr mbrojtjen.<\/p>\n

A do t\u00eb duher t\u00eb presim nj\u00eb rritja apo nj\u00eb reduktim t\u00eb pranis\u00eb ushtarake amerikane n\u00eb kontinent?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Shtetet e Bashkuara do t\u00eb donin ta reduktonin impenjimin e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb, si n\u00eb terma t\u00eb instalimeve, ashtu dhe t\u00eb efektivave, p\u00ebr t\u2019ua \u201ctenderuar\u201d frenimin e Rusis\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Lindore, Polonis\u00eb e Rumanis\u00eb mbi t\u00eb gjitha. Duke rezervuar t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn e nd\u00ebrhyrjes vet\u00ebm n\u00eb rast lufte t\u00eb hapur. P\u00ebrve\u00e7se t\u00eb shpresohet nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfshirje m\u00eb e madhe e shteteve an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s n\u00eb luft\u00ebrat n\u00eb Lindje t\u00eb Mesme, duke filluar nga ajo kund\u00ebr Shtetit Islamik. Faz\u00ebn aktuale mund ta p\u00ebrshkruajm\u00eb me nj\u00eb paradoks: amerikan\u00ebt do t\u00eb donin, q\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb fundi europian\u00ebt t\u00eb merrnin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb Aleanc\u00ebn Atlantike<\/em>. Por jan\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht shtetet an\u00ebtare q\u00eb e k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb me z\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb ruhet prania jon\u00eb n\u00eb kontinent, n\u00eb mos deri edhe ta rrisim. Jo vet\u00ebm qeverit\u00eb e ardhura s\u00eb fundmi, por deri edhe Berlini, pavar\u00ebsisht \u00e7do nuance sovraniste.<\/p>\n

A \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundshme n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb faz\u00eb nj\u00eb konvergjenc\u00eb interesash midis Gjermanis\u00eb dhe Rusis\u00eb, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb anathema<\/em> klasike e strategjis\u00eb amerikane?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sigurisht q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar i mundsh\u00ebm, por jo probab\u00ebl. Sot Moska dhe Berlini nuk duken realisht t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhsh\u00ebm. Gjermania ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb subjekt n\u00eb gjendje q\u00eb ta mbroj\u00eb, por Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe ekonomike dhe gjeopolitike, e impenjuar q\u00eb t\u00eb tregohet m\u00eb e fuqishme nga sa \u00ebsht\u00eb. Tri vite m\u00eb par\u00eb ka humbur Ukrain\u00ebn dhe nuk ka arritur as ta siguroj\u00eb n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, as q\u00eb t\u00eb nxis\u00eb nj\u00eb rebelim real n\u00eb rajonin lindor t\u00eb vendit. Bile Kievi ka vazhduar t\u00eb afrohet me Per\u00ebndimin, moskok\u00eb\u00e7ar\u00ebs p\u00ebr k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e Kremlinit. Anasjelltas, Moska ka nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr likuiditet, por financa dhe industria gjermane nuk i besojn\u00eb investimit n\u00eb vend, prej paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb endemike t\u00eb brendshme dhe prej munges\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti efektiv t\u00eb s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs si garanci p\u00ebr kapitalin e tyre. N\u00eb ndryshim nga disa dekada m\u00eb par\u00eb, nuk arrij t\u00eb imagjinoj nj\u00eb skenar n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin Gjermania dhe Rusia t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb n\u00eb unison. Sidomos n\u00eb kurriz t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara.<\/p>\n

Si do t\u00eb evoluoj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasja midis Gjermanis\u00eb dhe Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb do t\u00eb varet nga q\u00ebndrimi i Berlinit. N\u00eb vitet e ardhshme ekonomia gjermane do t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb momente shum\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira.<\/strong> Duke filluar nga viti 2008, Gjermania ka arritur q\u00eb t\u2019i shmanget r\u00ebnies ekonomike t\u00eb Bashkimit Europian, fal\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb eksporteve n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs dhe Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, por Republika Popullore e Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb tronditur nga nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb akute strukturore dhe brenda disa vjet\u00ebsh Amerika do t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetoj\u00eb nj\u00eb re\u00e7ision konjuktural. Zvog\u00eblimi bashk\u00ebkohor i aft\u00ebsis\u00eb bler\u00ebse t\u00eb dy vendeve do ta godas\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb gjermane. Me efekte t\u00eb paparashikueshme dhe potencialisht dramatike p\u00ebr kontinentin europian. M\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sfer\u00eb t\u00eb tij t\u00eb influenc\u00ebs, Berlini do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i detyruar q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrohet n\u00eb mbijetes\u00ebn e modelit t\u00eb vet t\u00eb zhvillimit. At\u00ebhere Shtetet e Bashkuara mund ta braktisin ofensiv\u00ebn. Prej rr\u00ebzimit t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtarit.
\n(Bota.al<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PRISHTIN\u00cb | 24 QER 2017 – Nga Ekonomia Online Nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedim me George Friedman, themelues dhe CEO i Geopolitical Futures. Teuton\u00ebt p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb etnin\u00eb e par\u00eb t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Pse Uashingtoni nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb progjerman? Si\u00e7 u ka ndodhur edhe emigrant\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb shekuj kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, gjerman\u00ebt kan\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-intervista"],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cGjermania rrezikon q\u00eb t\u00eb shembet\u201d - FJALA e LIR\u00cb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/gjermania-rrezikon-qe-te-shembet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cGjermania rrezikon q\u00eb t\u00eb shembet\u201d - FJALA e LIR\u00cb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PRISHTIN\u00cb | 24 QER 2017 – Nga Ekonomia Online Nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedim me George Friedman, themelues dhe CEO i Geopolitical Futures. 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