{"id":53453,"date":"2020-04-07T02:34:12","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T01:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/?p=53453"},"modified":"2020-04-07T02:34:12","modified_gmt":"2020-04-07T01:34:12","slug":"uashingtoni-po-mundeson-nje-krize-te-re-ne-ballkan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/uashingtoni-po-mundeson-nje-krize-te-re-ne-ballkan\/","title":{"rendered":"Uashingtoni po mund\u00ebson nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb re n\u00eb Ballkan"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Janusz Nga Janusz Bugajski<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekskluzive Dita<\/a>: Nd\u00ebrsa pandemia e koronavirusit shqet\u00ebson Uashingtonin, administrata e Trump pa dashje po inkurajon nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Ballkan. N\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje t\u00eb nxituar p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje midis Serbis\u00eb dhe Kosov\u00ebs, Sht\u00ebpia e Bardh\u00eb mund t\u00eb dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb mjaft arritje t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit dhe t\u00eb nxis\u00eb rivalitete t\u00eb reja rajonale.<\/p>\n

Kosova \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb mes t\u00eb nj\u00eb krize politike, pasi qeveria me koalicion ra p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve mbi kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjet ndaj pandemis\u00eb. Por beteja e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ka v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi Presidentin Hashim Tha\u00e7i, i cili ka diskutuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb fsheht\u00eb ndarjen e Kosov\u00ebs me presidentin e Serbis\u00eb Aleksandar Vu\u00e7i\u00e7, duke iu kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb kryeministrit Albin Kurti, i cili kund\u00ebrshton \u00e7do ndryshim kufiri. Uashingtoni ka mbajtur qart\u00ebsisht an\u00ebn e Tha\u00e7it me shpres\u00ebn e d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar, se k\u00ebshtu mund t\u00eb zgjidhet m\u00eb shpejt mosmarr\u00ebveshja Serbi-Kosov\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Problemi thelb\u00ebsor \u00ebsht\u00eb refuzimi i Beogradit p\u00ebr ta njohur Kosov\u00ebn si nj\u00eb shtet t\u00eb pavarur. Ky bllokim pengon ambiciet e Serbis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb BE dhe ngrin an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimin e Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb institucionet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb bien dakord p\u00ebr hapat drejt njohjes dypal\u00ebshe, Tha\u00e7i dhe Vu\u00e7i\u00e7 duket se besojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim territoresh do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb shkop magjik n\u00eb normalizimin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Kurtit i jep Tha\u00e7it mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb anashkaloj\u00eb qeverin\u00eb dhe parlamentin n\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjet me Beogradin. Thashethemet e p\u00ebrhapura n\u00eb Prishtin\u00eb p\u00ebr shk\u00ebmbim territoresh t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga SHBA madje e detyruan Departamentin e Shtetit t\u00eb l\u00ebshoj\u00eb nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb, q\u00eb mohon ekzistenc\u00ebn e ndonj\u00eb plani sekret. Por formulimi i deklarat\u00ebs ndikoi pak n\u00eb qet\u00ebsimin e frik\u00ebs n\u00eb rritje, se Tha\u00e7i dhe Vu\u00e7i\u00e7 po negociojn\u00eb me bekimin e Uashingtonit.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse shk\u00ebmbimi i territoreve konsiderohet nga disa zyrtar\u00eb si di\u00e7ka kaq e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, at\u00ebher\u00eb lind pyetja se pse kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb diskutuar vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fsheht\u00ebsi dhe mohohet rregullisht. N\u00ebse Uashingtoni mb\u00ebshtet ndryshimet territoriale, at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb e qart\u00eb se si kjo do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrrmerret sakt\u00ebsisht dhe me legjitimitet t\u00eb plot\u00eb demokratik. Nj\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim i besuesh\u00ebm territoresh do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte disa parakushte: njohjen nga nj\u00ebra-tjetra t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb dhe Kosov\u00ebs si shtete t\u00eb pavarura; miratimin e popullit p\u00ebrmes votimit parlamentar apo nj\u00eb referendumi popullor; ndryshimet e nevojshme kushtetuese; dhe ndihm\u00eb gjat\u00eb zhvendosjes vullnetare t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb prekur nga shk\u00ebmbimet territoriale.<\/p>\n

Pa nj\u00eb paket\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse, do t\u00eb shfaqen tre k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime afatshkurtra: vendase<\/em>, rajonale<\/em> dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare<\/em>. Ndryshimi i kufijve do t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb konflikte si n\u00eb Serbi ashtu edhe n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb. Pa miratim parlamentar dhe popullor, marr\u00ebveshjet e b\u00ebra pas dyerve t\u00eb mbyllura do t\u00eb rrisin sensin e protest\u00ebs. N\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, kjo do t\u00eb intensifikoj\u00eb betejat politike, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse vendi nuk p\u00ebrfiton an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim n\u00eb OKB. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb Serbi, n\u00ebse marr\u00ebveshja nuk kulmohet me an\u00ebtar\u00ebsim n\u00eb BE, humbja e ndonj\u00eb territori shtes\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndez\u00eb nacionalizmin. Trazira t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj natyre ka gjasa q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb dhunshme gjat\u00eb koh\u00ebrave t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs ekonomike, frik\u00ebs dhe pasiguris\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nivel rajonal, ndryshimet kufitare t\u00eb miratuara nga SHBA do t\u00eb inkurajojn\u00eb separatist\u00ebt dhe irredentist\u00ebt t\u2019i interpretojn\u00eb ata si legjitimim i homogjenizimit komb\u00ebtar. Me abuzimin e qart\u00eb t\u00eb parimit t\u00eb multi-etnitetit, k\u00ebrkesat p\u00ebr mono-etnicitet mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohen dhe potencialisht t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb disa vende. Institucionet per\u00ebndimore dhe forcat e NATO-s mund t\u00eb gjenden t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgatitur r\u00ebndsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr val\u00ebn e destabilitetit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb rajonin. Thirrja q\u00eb disa qindra trupa amerikane t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqen nga misioni jetik i NATO-s n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb do t\u2019i hedhin zjarrit benzin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Rishikimet e territorit n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrisin mb\u00ebshtetjen ndaj bashkimit me Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb. Nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje e till\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut, ku t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb e kat\u00ebrta e popullsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shqiptare. K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet ndaj integritetit territorial t\u00eb Maqedonis\u00eb s\u00eb Veriut potencialisht mund ta v\u00ebn\u00eb si Bullgarin\u00eb ashtu edhe Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikti n\u00eb zgjerim. T\u00ebr\u00ebsia serbe n\u00eb Bosnje-Hercegovin\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb aplikimin e precedentit t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs n\u00eb ndarje nga Bosnja, \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb rasti gjithashtu me popullat\u00ebn kroate n\u00eb Hercegovin\u00ebn per\u00ebndimore dhe popullsin\u00eb boshnjake n\u00eb rajonin e Sanxhakut n\u00eb Serbi.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb rang nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, perspektiva e shk\u00ebmbimeve t\u00eb territoreve i shton nj\u00eb dimension t\u00eb ri planeve p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00ebse t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor dhe p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb precedent q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret tjet\u00ebrkund. Moska \u00ebsht\u00eb e vet\u00ebdijshme q\u00eb nacionalist\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm n\u00eb Ballkan do t\u2019i vihen pas mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb marrjes s\u00eb territoreve dhe mund t\u00eb inkurajohen t\u00eb ndjekin edhe m\u00eb fort pretendimet e tyre m\u00eb ambicioze irredentiste. Zyrtar\u00ebt ruse, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, mund t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje rajonale dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb veten si nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Mb\u00ebshtetja e Kremlinit p\u00ebr shk\u00ebmbim territoresh n\u00eb Ballkan gjithashtu vendos precedent\u00eb t\u00eb vlefsh\u00ebm, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr ndarjen nga ana e tij t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, Gjeorgjis\u00eb, Moldavis\u00eb dhe shteteve t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr. Ndryshimet e detyruara t\u00eb kufirit nga Moska mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruhen si l\u00ebvizje legjitime q\u00eb reflektojn\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen e Per\u00ebndimit p\u00ebr homogjenizimin etnik n\u00eb Ballkan. Kjo mund t\u00eb ul\u00eb thirrjet p\u00ebr sanksione ekonomike ndaj Rusis\u00eb si kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje p\u00ebr grryerjen e territoreve t\u00eb fqinj\u00ebve t\u00eb saj. N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb zhvelft\u00ebsoj\u00eb trazimin dhe destabilizim e Ballkanit nga Moska, mb\u00ebshtetja e SHBA p\u00ebr ndryshimin e kufijve mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb nj\u00eb dhurat\u00eb p\u00ebr Presidentin Putin.<\/p>\n

\n

ENGLISH<\/em><\/p>\n

Dita<\/a>, Albania<\/em><\/p>\n

WASHINGTON IS ENABLING A NEW BALKAN CRISIS<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Janusz Bugajski<\/strong><\/p>\n

While the coronavirus pandemic preoccupies Washington, the Trump administration is inadvertantly stoking a new conflict in the Balkans. In a hastened effort to forge a settlement between Serbia and Kosova the White House could unravel many Western achievements and incite new regional rivalries.<\/p>\n

Kosova is in the midst of a political crisis as the coalition government fell apart because of disagreements over responses to the pandemic. But the real battle has pitted President Hashim Thaci, who has secretly discussed Kosova\u2019s partition with Serbia\u2019s President Aleksandar Vucic, against Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who opposes any border changes. Washington has evidently sided with Thaci in the forlorn hope that it can quickly settle the Serbia-Kosova dispute.<\/p>\n

The core problem is Belgrade\u2019s refusal to recognize Kosova as an independent state. This paralysis hinders Serbia\u2019s ambitions to enter the EU and freezes Kosova\u2019s entry into international institutions. Instead of agreeing on steps toward bilateral recognition, Thaci and Vucic seem to believe that an exchange of territory will be a magic wand in normalizing relations.<\/p>\n

The fall of the Kurti government provides an opportunity for Thaci to bypass government and parliament in making deals with Belgrade. The swirling rumors in Prishtina about U.S. supported land swaps even forced the State Department to issue a statement denying that there is any secret plan. But the wording of the statement did little to assuage growing fears that Thaci and Vucic are negotiating with Washington\u2019s blessing.<\/p>\n

If a land swap is considered by some officials to be such a great deal then one wonders why it has only been discussed in secrecy and is regularly denied. If Washington supports territorial changes it should be clear how exactly this will occur with full democratic legitimacy. A credible land exchange would require several preconditions: Serbia and Kosova recognizing each other as independent countries; popular approval through a parliamentary vote or public referendum; necessary constitutional amendments; and assistance to citizens affected by the land swaps during their voluntary relocation.<\/p>\n

Without such a comprehensive package, three immediate threats will surface: domestic, regional, and international. Border alterations will create even more conflicts in both Serbia and Kosova. Without plebiscites and parliamentary approval, deals struck behind closed door will accelerate feelings of grievance. In Kosova this will intensify political battles especially if the country does not benefit from UN membership. And in Serbia, the loss of any more territory could inflame nationalism if the deal does not culminate in EU accession. Such disputes are more likely to turn violent during times of economic disruption, fear, and uncertainty that the pandemic has unleashed.<\/p>\n

Regionally, border changes approved by the U.S. will encourage separatists and irredentists to interpret them as legitimizing national homogenization. With the principle of multi-ethnicity evidently jettisoned, demands for mono-ethnicity can escalate and potentially unravel several countries. Western institutions and NATO forces may find themselves woefully unprepared for the wave of instability that could engulf the region. Calls for several hundred American troops to be withdrawn from the vital NATO mission in Kosova will add fuel to the flames.<\/p>\n

Territorial revisions in Kosova could raise support for unification with Albania. Such momentum could spread to North Macedonia where at least a quarter of the population is Albanian. Threats to North Macedonia\u2019s territorial integrity could potentially bring both Bulgaria and Albania into an expanding conflict. The Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina will demand the application of the Kosova precedent in splitting from Bosnia, likewise with the Croat population in western Herzegovina and the Bosniak population in Serbia\u2019s Sandjak region.<\/p>\n

Internationally, the prospect of land swaps adds another dimension to Moscow\u2019s divisive plans in the Western Balkans and establishes usable precedents elsewhere. Moscow is well aware that various Balkan nationalists will pounce on the prospect of territorial acquisitions and can be encouraged to pursue even more ambitious irredentist claims. Russian officials can simultaneously offer regional settlements and inject themselves as mediators.<\/p>\n

Kremlin support for Balkan land exchanges also establishes valuable precedents, particularly for its own partition of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other targeted states. Moscow\u2019s coerced border changes can be depicted as legitimate moves that mirror Western support for ethnic homogenization in the Balkans. This could reduce calls for economic sanctions against Russia for carving up its neighbors\u2019 territories. Instead of pushing back on Moscow\u2019s subversion and destabilization of the Balkans, U.S. supported border changes could turn out to be a gift for President Putin.<\/p>\n

*Botuar n\u00eb Dita. Kolon\u00ebn e z.Bugajski mund ta ndiqni \u00e7do t\u00eb shtun\u00eb. Ndalohet kategorikisht ribotimi i plot\u00eb apo i pjessh\u00ebm pa lejen me shkrim t\u00eb redaksis\u00eb<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Janusz Bugajski Ekskluzive Dita: Nd\u00ebrsa pandemia e koronavirusit shqet\u00ebson Uashingtonin, administrata e Trump pa dashje po inkurajon nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Ballkan. N\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje t\u00eb nxituar p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje midis Serbis\u00eb dhe Kosov\u00ebs, Sht\u00ebpia e Bardh\u00eb mund t\u00eb dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb mjaft arritje t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit dhe t\u00eb nxis\u00eb rivalitete t\u00eb reja rajonale. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artikuj"],"yoast_head":"\nUashingtoni po mund\u00ebson nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb re n\u00eb Ballkan - FJALA e LIR\u00cb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/uashingtoni-po-mundeson-nje-krize-te-re-ne-ballkan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uashingtoni po mund\u00ebson nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb re n\u00eb Ballkan - FJALA e LIR\u00cb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Janusz Bugajski Ekskluzive Dita: Nd\u00ebrsa pandemia e koronavirusit shqet\u00ebson Uashingtonin, administrata e Trump pa dashje po inkurajon nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Ballkan. N\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje t\u00eb nxituar p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje midis Serbis\u00eb dhe Kosov\u00ebs, Sht\u00ebpia e Bardh\u00eb mund t\u00eb dob\u00ebsoj\u00eb mjaft arritje t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit dhe t\u00eb nxis\u00eb rivalitete t\u00eb reja rajonale. 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