{"id":70948,"date":"2021-08-21T03:39:25","date_gmt":"2021-08-21T01:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fjala.info\/?p=70948"},"modified":"2021-08-22T10:48:47","modified_gmt":"2021-08-22T08:48:47","slug":"pse-eshte-kaq-e-veshtire-te-jesh-racional","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/pse-eshte-kaq-e-veshtire-te-jesh-racional\/","title":{"rendered":"Pse \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb jesh racional?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb qenit “metaracional” \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb dish, kur t\u00eb lejosh dik\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb.<\/em> Ilustrim nga Francesco Ciccolella<\/span><\/p>\n

Analet e Hetimit<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Sfida e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb kesh t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, por t\u00eb dish se sa i gabuar mund t\u00eb jesh.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Nga Joshua Rothman<\/strong>, 16 gusht 2021<\/em> – NewYorker.com<\/a> – P\u00ebrktheu Arben \u00c7okaj<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Kam takuar personin m\u00eb racional q\u00eb njoh gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb kolegjit. Gregu (jo emri i tij i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb) kishte nj\u00eb pun\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjes teknike n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin laborator kompjuterik, ku un\u00eb punoja, dhe ne u b\u00ebm\u00eb miq. Kam planifikuar t\u00eb jem nj\u00eb drejtues i shkrimit krijues; Greg m\u00eb tha se ai po vendoste midis fizik\u00ebs dhe ekonomis\u00eb. Ai do t\u00eb zgjidhte fizik\u00ebn, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ishte mjaft i zgjuar dhe ekonomin\u00eb n\u00ebse nuk ishte – ai mendoi se do ta dinte brenda pak muajsh, bazuar n\u00eb notat e tij. Ai zgjodhi ekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

U b\u00ebm\u00eb bashk\u00eb dhe shpesh kishim dallime mendimesh. P\u00ebr disa arsye, mora nj\u00eb klas\u00eb mbi politik\u00ebn sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe u tmerrova nga ideja q\u00eb administrator\u00ebt e spitaleve duhet t\u00eb marrin parasysh shpenzimet kur ofrojn\u00eb kujdes. (A nuk duhet q\u00eb mjek\u00ebt t\u00eb vendosin vet\u00ebm se \u00e7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mira p\u00ebr pacient\u00ebt e tyre?<\/em>) Un\u00eb punova dhe zhvillova shum\u00eb argumente p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur pik\u00ebpamjen time; Ndjeva se kisha t\u00eb drejt\u00eb si praktikisht ashtu edhe moralisht. Greg tundi kok\u00ebn. Ai vuri n\u00eb dukje se babai im ishte mjek dhe shpjegoi se un\u00eb po merresha me nj\u00eb “arsyetim t\u00eb motivuar”. Zorra ime m\u00eb thoshte se \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb mendoja, dhe truri im po kuptonte se si ta mendonte. Kjo m\u00eb dukej sikur mendoja, por nuk ishte.<\/p>\n

Vitin tjet\u00ebr, nj\u00eb grup prej nesh bleu stereo. Zgjedhjet ishin t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuara: kanale, cic\u00ebrim\u00ebsa, altoparlante, mikser. Greg kreu nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb para se t\u00eb montonte nj\u00eb stereo t\u00eb aft\u00eb. Bleva nj\u00eb q\u00eb, sipas mendimit tim, dukej e lezetshme dhe posedonte disa tonalitete t\u00eb pashprehshme, tonal je ne sais quoi (tone q\u00eb nuk i dija se \u00e7far\u00eb). Qasja e Gregut m\u00eb goditi si pa imagjinat\u00eb, utilitare. M\u00eb von\u00eb, kur ai u p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsua n\u00eb nj\u00eb sistem t\u00eb ri zanor, bleva pajisjet e tij t\u00eb vjetra dhe zbulova se ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb, sesa ajo q\u00eb kisha zgjedhur un\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitin e lart\u00eb, fillova t\u00eb marr parasysh shkoll\u00ebn pasuniversitare. Nj\u00eb nga student\u00ebt e klas\u00ebs q\u00eb njihja m\u00eb paralajm\u00ebroi – perspektivat e pun\u00ebs p\u00ebr profesor\u00ebt anglez\u00eb ishte e zymt\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, mora vendimin e diskutuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb filluar nj\u00eb doktoratur\u00eb. Greg hyri n\u00eb financ\u00eb. Ne q\u00ebndruam miq, shpesh diskutuam p\u00ebr gjendjen e bot\u00ebs dhe subjektin meta se si ta konstatojm\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb miri. U ndjeva i mbingarkuar nga ajo q\u00eb duhej ditur – kishte shum\u00eb revista, shum\u00eb libra – dhe k\u00ebshtu, me Gregun si Virgjilin tim, un\u00eb udh\u00ebtova m\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e racionalitetit. Kishte, doli, nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje racionaliteti n\u00eb rritje, me etik\u00ebn e vet, stilin e t\u00eb menduarit dhe trupin e njohurive, t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb shum\u00eb nga psikologjia dhe ekonomia. Ashtu si Gregu, un\u00eb lexova nj\u00eb koleksion t\u00eb blogeve t\u00eb racionalitetit – Revolucioni Margjinal, Rruga Farnam, Nd\u00ebrfluiditeti, Crooked Timber (nga L\u00ebnda drusore e shtremb\u00ebr – nj\u00eb blog i majt\u00eb i qendr\u00ebs<\/em>).<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrhumbja faqet e internetit t\u00eb Rrjetit t\u00eb K\u00ebrkimeve t\u00eb Shkencave Sociale dhe Byros\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb K\u00ebrkimeve Ekonomike, ku mund t\u00eb hasja n\u00eb gjetje t\u00eb sapo publikuara; Un\u00eb i brend\u00ebsova punimet akademike mbi paragjykimet njoh\u00ebse, q\u00eb anojn\u00eb t\u00eb menduarit ton\u00eb dhe m\u00ebsova nj\u00eb formul\u00eb t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb p\u00ebr vler\u00ebsimin e “vler\u00ebs s\u00eb pritshme” t\u00eb vendimeve t\u00eb mia m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme. Kur po k\u00ebrkoja t\u00eb blija nj\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, Greg m\u00eb p\u00ebrshkoi me kompromiset e marrjes me qira dhe pron\u00ebsis\u00eb (vet\u00ebm me qira); kur po mendoja t\u00eb nd\u00ebrroja karrier\u00eb, ai testoi stresin skenar\u00ebt e mi (un\u00eb ndryshova). Si nj\u00eb person emocional dhe impulsiv nga natyra, e gjeta veten duke punuar shum\u00eb n\u00eb racionalitet. Edhe Gregu pranoi se ishte pun\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb: ai duhej t\u00eb inspektonte vazhdimisht proceset e tij t\u00eb mendimit p\u00ebr gabime, si nj\u00eb kompjuter fantastiko-shkencor, q\u00eb sapo ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb i ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Shpesh, pyesja veten, si do t\u00eb mendonte Greg? P\u00ebrvet\u00ebsova zakonin e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndjekur at\u00eb q\u00eb dija dhe sa mir\u00eb e dija, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndaj mendimet e mia t\u00eb bazuara nga pik\u00ebpamjet e mia t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme. Investitor\u00ebt e k\u00ebqij, m\u00eb tha Greg, shpesh kishin harta t\u00eb sheshta, t\u00eb vizatuara lirsh\u00ebm t\u00eb njohurive t\u00eb tyre, por ata t\u00eb mir\u00eb ishin hartograf\u00eb t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm, q\u00eb b\u00ebnin dallimin midis territoreve t\u00eb vendosura, t\u00eb v\u00ebzhguara dhe t\u00eb pashkelura. Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, jeta jon\u00eb u shpalos. Rreth koh\u00ebs q\u00eb lash\u00eb programin tim p\u00ebr t\u00eb provuar gazetarin\u00eb, Gregu u trondit nga mendja racionale e t\u00eb dashur\u00ebs s\u00eb tij, u martua me t\u00eb dhe u b\u00eb drejtor n\u00eb nj\u00eb fond mbrojt\u00ebs. Pasuria e tij neto tani \u00ebsht\u00eb disa mij\u00ebra m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se e imja.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, gjysma e amerikan\u00ebve nuk do t\u00eb vaksinohen; shum\u00eb besojn\u00eb n\u00eb teorit\u00eb e komplotit ose pseudoshkenc\u00ebn. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb se ne nuk mendojm\u00eb – ne vazhdimisht po lexojm\u00eb, po flasim, po debatojm\u00eb – por ne duket se e b\u00ebjm\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb arrati, nd\u00ebrsa shikojm\u00eb trollet (postimet provokuese) n\u00eb telefonat tan\u00eb. K\u00ebt\u00eb ver\u00eb, n\u00eb telefonin tim, lexova nj\u00eb postim n\u00eb blog nga ekonomisti Arnold Kling, i cili vuri n\u00eb dukje se nj\u00eb num\u00ebr jasht\u00ebzakonisht i madh i librave rreth racionalitetit po botoheshin k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, nd\u00ebr to “Racionaliteti: \u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb, pse duket i pak\u00ebt<\/em><\/a>” i Steven Pinker. Pse ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi<\/em> \u201d(Viking) dhe Julia Galef\u201c Mend\u00ebsia Scout: Pse disa njer\u00ebz i shohin gj\u00ebrat qart\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt jo<\/em><\/a> \u201d(Portofol). Ka kuptim, sugjeroi Kling, q\u00eb racionaliteti t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb moment shp\u00ebrthimi: “Barbar\u00ebt pla\u00e7kitin qytetin, dhe bart\u00ebsit e kultur\u00ebs s\u00eb vdekur riparojn\u00eb n\u00eb bodrumet e tyre p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkruar.<\/em>” N\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb polemike, racionaliteti mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj higjiene opinioni – nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb lar\u00eb pik\u00ebpamjet e gjykuara gabimisht. N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, ajo premton t\u00eb sjell\u00eb gjykat\u00ebn n\u00eb rregull. Kur bota ndryshon shpejt, ne kemi nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr strategji p\u00ebr ta kuptuar at\u00eb. Shpresojm\u00eb, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb arsyeshme, q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit racional\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm, t\u00eb ndersh\u00ebm, t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, me mendje t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, kurioz\u00eb dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb se sa ata irracional\u00eb.<\/p>\n

E megjithat\u00eb racionaliteti ka skaje t\u00eb mprehta q\u00eb e b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb vendosjen n\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb jet\u00ebs s\u00eb dikujt. \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb jeni aq racional sa t\u00eb jeni t\u00eb prer\u00eb nga m\u00ebnyrat m\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohta t\u00eb t\u00eb qenit – si studenti Bazarov, n\u00eb “Et\u00ebrit dhe Bijt\u00eb<\/a>” e Ivan Turgenev, i cili deklaron, “Un\u00eb shikoj drejt qiellit vet\u00ebm kur dua t\u00eb teshtij<\/em>“. (Gregu, gjithashtu, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohet se ai \u00ebsht\u00eb racional deri n\u00eb tepric\u00eb-se ai po b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb shef i pashpirt, nj\u00eb peshk i ftoht\u00eb, nj\u00eb robot.) Ju mund t\u00eb jeni me q\u00ebllim t\u00eb mir\u00eb, racional\u00eb dhe t\u00eb gabuar, thjesht sepse kaq shum\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb menduarit ton\u00eb mund gabohem. (“Racionale<\/em>, mbiem\u00ebr: Pa t\u00eb gjitha mashtrimet p\u00ebrve\u00e7 atyre t\u00eb v\u00ebzhgimit, p\u00ebrvoj\u00ebs dhe reflektimit<\/em>,” shkroi Ambrose Bierce, n\u00eb “Fjalorin e Djallit<\/em>“.) Ju mund t\u00eb jeni racional dhe vet\u00eb-mashtrues, sepse duke i th\u00ebn\u00eb vetes se jeni racional n\u00eb vetvete b\u00ebhet burim paragjykimi. \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb ju po p\u00ebrpiqeni t\u00eb dukeni racional vet\u00ebm sepse doni t\u00eb b\u00ebni p\u00ebrshtypje te njer\u00ebzit; ose q\u00eb jeni m\u00eb racional n\u00eb lidhje me disa gj\u00ebra (pun\u00ebn tuaj) sesa t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt (f\u00ebmij\u00ebt tuaj); ose q\u00eb racionaliteti juaj i jep rrug\u00eb zem\u00ebrimit sapo idet\u00eb tuaja sfidohen. Ndoshta ju k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulni n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb joracionale p\u00ebr t’iu p\u00ebrgjigjur pyetjeve t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira vet\u00eb, kur do t\u00eb ishte m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb besonit konsensusin e ekspert\u00ebve. Ndoshta, si Zoti Spock, i “Star Trek<\/em><\/a>“, llogaritjet tuaja racionale nuk arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb japin llogari p\u00ebr irracionalitetin e njer\u00ebzve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb<\/em>. (Duke v\u00ebzhguar parashikimet e Spock, Galef zbulon se rezultatet q\u00eb Spock ka p\u00ebrcaktuar se jan\u00eb t\u00eb pamundura, n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ndodhin rreth tet\u00ebdhjet\u00eb p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb koh\u00ebs, shpesh sepse ai supozon se njer\u00ebzit e tjer\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb aq “logjik\u00eb” sa ai.)<\/p>\n

Jo vet\u00ebm individ\u00ebt por shoq\u00ebrit\u00eb mund t\u00eb bien pre e racionalitetit t\u00eb rrem\u00eb ose t\u00eb komprometuar. N\u00eb nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr t\u00eb vitit 2014, “Revolta e Publikut dhe Kriza e Autoritetit n\u00eb Mileniumin e R<\/a>i<\/em>“, Martin Gurri, nj\u00eb analist i CIA u shnd\u00ebrrua n\u00eb mendimtar social liberal, argumentoi se demaskimi i institucioneve t\u00eb supozuara pseudo-racionale ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb drama qendrore e epok\u00ebs son\u00eb: njer\u00ebzit n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, pasi kishin arritur n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se peshkatar\u00ebt e m\u00ebdhenj n\u00eb kolegjet, redaksit\u00eb dhe legjislaturat tona ishin m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb dukeshin racional\u00eb, sesa duke qen\u00eb k\u00ebshtu, kishte p\u00ebrqafuar nj\u00eb populiz\u00ebm nihilist, q\u00eb i sheh t\u00eb dyshimta t\u00eb gjitha format e racionalitetit publik. Mohuesit e covidit dhe aktivist\u00ebt e klim\u00ebs jan\u00eb njer\u00ebz t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm, por ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb bashkuar n\u00eb zhg\u00ebnjimin e tyre me sistemet e nd\u00ebrtuara nga ekspert\u00ebt n\u00eb emrin ton\u00eb – t\u00eb dy grupet i p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb elitat q\u00eb p\u00ebrziejn\u00eb kuvert\u00ebn e PowerPoint n\u00eb Davos nd\u00ebrsa bota digjet. Nga ky k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim, shkaku kryesor i irracionalitetit masiv \u00ebsht\u00eb d\u00ebshtimi i racionalist\u00ebve. Njer\u00ebzit do t\u00eb besonin n\u00eb sistem, n\u00ebse n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb kishte kuptim.<\/p>\n

E megjithat\u00eb jeta moderne do t\u00eb ishte e pamundur pa ato sisteme racionale; ne duhet t’i p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojm\u00eb ato, jo t’i refuzojm\u00eb. Ne nuk kemi zgjidhje tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7se t\u00eb luftojm\u00eb me racionalitetin – nj\u00eb ideal q\u00eb, shkruante sociologu Max Weber<\/a>, “p\u00ebrmban brenda vetes nj\u00eb bot\u00eb kontradiktash<\/em>“. Ne duam t\u00eb jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri m\u00eb racionale, por jo n\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri t\u00eb racionalizuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb rreme.<\/strong> Ne duam t\u00eb jemi m\u00eb racional\u00eb si individ\u00eb, por t\u00eb mos e teprojm\u00eb. Ne duhet t\u00eb dim\u00eb kur t\u00eb mendojm\u00eb dhe kur t\u00eb ndalojm\u00eb s\u00eb menduari, kur t\u00eb dyshojm\u00eb dhe kur t\u00eb besojm\u00eb. Racionaliteti \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga superfuqit\u00eb e njer\u00ebzimit. Si t\u00eb ruhemi nga keqp\u00ebrdorimi i tij?<\/p>\n

Duke shkruar p\u00ebr racionalitetin n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb nj\u00ebzet\u00eb, Weber e pa veten duke u p\u00ebrballur me nj\u00eb forc\u00eb titanike – nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim ngjit\u00ebs, q\u00eb po rishkruante vlerat tona. Ai foli p\u00ebr racionalitetin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme. Ne mund t\u00eb praktikojm\u00eb racionalitetin instrumental t\u00eb mjeteve dhe q\u00ebllimeve (si ta marr at\u00eb q\u00eb dua?) Dhe racionalitetin e vler\u00ebs t\u00eb q\u00ebllimeve dhe q\u00ebllimeve (a kam arsye t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr t\u00eb dashur at\u00eb q\u00eb dua?). Ne mund t\u00eb ndjekim racionalitetin e afektit (a jam i ftoht\u00eb, i qet\u00eb dhe i mbledhur?) Ose t\u00eb zhvillojm\u00eb racionalitetin e zakonit (a jetoj nj\u00eb jet\u00eb t\u00eb urdh\u00ebruar, apo t\u00eb “racionalizuar”?). Racionaliteti ishte padyshim i dobish\u00ebm, por Weber u shqet\u00ebsua se po e kthente secilin individ n\u00eb nj\u00eb “dh\u00ebmb n\u00eb makin\u00eb” dhe jet\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb “kafaz t\u00eb hekurt”. Sot, racionaliteti dhe fjal\u00ebt rreth tij jan\u00eb ende t\u00eb mbuluara me pesimiz\u00ebm weberian dhe t\u00eb mallkuara me kuptime t\u00eb dyfishta. Ju jeni duke racionalizuar tabel\u00ebn e organizat\u00ebs: po e v\u00ebni rregullin n\u00eb kaos, apo po justifikoni t\u00eb palogjikshmen?<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrkufizimet weberiane t\u00eb racionalitetit nuk jan\u00eb aspak kanonike. N\u00eb “The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Racional Thinking<\/a>” (MIT), nga viti 2016, psikolog\u00ebt Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West dhe Maggie E. Toplak e quajn\u00eb racionalitetin “nj\u00eb term torturues dhe i torturuar<\/em>“, pjes\u00ebrisht sepse filozof\u00ebt, sociolog\u00ebt, psikolog\u00ebt dhe ekonomist\u00ebt e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ndryshe. P\u00ebr Aristotelin, racionaliteti ishte ajo q\u00eb ndau qeniet njer\u00ebzore nga kafsh\u00ebt. P\u00ebr autor\u00ebt e “The Rationality Quotient” (kuota e racionalitetit), \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb aft\u00ebsi mendore, paralele por e dallueshme nga inteligjenca, e cila p\u00ebrfshin aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb personi p\u00ebr t\u00eb mashtruar shum\u00eb skenar\u00eb n\u00eb kok\u00ebn e saj n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, pa l\u00ebn\u00eb ask\u00ebnd t\u00eb monopolizoj\u00eb v\u00ebmendjen e saj ose ta anoj\u00eb at\u00eb ndaj pjes\u00ebs tjet\u00ebr. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak se disa njer\u00ebz jan\u00eb xhongler\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb se t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt, bota \u00ebsht\u00eb e mbushur me “njer\u00ebz t\u00eb zgjuar, q\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb gj\u00ebra t\u00eb marra<\/em>“: f\u00ebmij\u00ebt e kolegjit dehen nat\u00ebn para nj\u00eb provimi t\u00eb madh, ose udh\u00ebtar\u00ebt q\u00eb prenotojn\u00eb fluturime me pushime t\u00eb pamundura t\u00eb shkurtra.<\/p>\n

Galef, q\u00eb jep nj\u00eb podkast t\u00eb quajtur “Duke folur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb racionale<\/a>” dhe bashk\u00ebthemeloi Qendr\u00ebn jofitimprur\u00ebse p\u00ebr Racionalitetin e Aplikuar, n\u00eb Berkeley, mezi p\u00ebrdor fjal\u00ebn “racionalitet” n\u00eb librin e saj mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb tem\u00eb. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, ajo p\u00ebrshkruan nj\u00eb “mendim skautist”, i cili mund t’ju ndihmoj\u00eb “t\u00eb kuptoni kur e keni gabim, t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoni pikat tuaja t\u00eb verbra, t\u00eb provoni supozimet tuaja dhe t\u00eb ndryshoni kurs<\/em>“. (“Mend\u00ebsia e ushtarit<\/em>“, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, ju inkurajon t\u00eb mbroni pozicionet tuaja me \u00e7do kusht.) Galef tenton ta shoh\u00eb racionalitetin si nj\u00eb metod\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar pik\u00ebpamje m\u00eb t\u00eb sakta. Pinker, nj\u00eb psikolog njoh\u00ebs dhe evolucionar, e sheh at\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb instrumentale, si “aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur njohurit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur q\u00ebllimet<\/em>“. Sipas k\u00ebtij p\u00ebrkufizimi, p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb nj\u00eb person racional duhet t’i dini gj\u00ebrat, duhet t\u00eb doni gj\u00ebra dhe duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorni at\u00eb q\u00eb dini p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb d\u00ebshironi.<\/strong> Synimet kan\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi: nj\u00eb person nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb racional, argumenton Pinker, n\u00ebse ai zgjidh nj\u00eb problem, duke penguar nj\u00eb strategji “q\u00eb funksionon”.<\/p>\n

Introspeksioni \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7el\u00ebsi i racionalitetit. Nj\u00eb person racional duhet t\u00eb praktikoj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb neuroshkenc\u00ebtari Stephen Fleming, n\u00eb “Njihe Veten: Shkenca e Vet\u00ebdijes<\/a>” (Librat Baz\u00eb), e quan “metakognition”, ose “aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb menduar p\u00ebr t\u00eb menduarit ton\u00eb” – “nj\u00eb e brisht\u00eb, e bukur, dhe tipar sinqerisht i \u00e7uditsh\u00ebm i mendjes njer\u00ebzore.” Metakognicioni<\/strong> shfaqet her\u00ebt n\u00eb jet\u00eb, kur ne ende po p\u00ebrpiqemi t’i b\u00ebjm\u00eb l\u00ebvizjet tona t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhen me planet tona. (“Pse e b\u00ebra k\u00ebt\u00eb?” – m\u00eb pyeti vog\u00eblushi im koh\u00ebt e fundit, pasi rr\u00ebzoi aksidentalisht filxhanin e tij nga tryeza e m\u00ebngjesit.) M\u00eb von\u00eb, lejon nj\u00eb lojtar golfi t\u00eb v\u00ebrej\u00eb dallime t\u00eb vogla midis l\u00ebvizjes s\u00eb saj t\u00eb par\u00eb dhe asaj t\u00eb dyt\u00eb, dhe pastaj t\u00eb rregulloj\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn e saj. Gjithashtu mund t\u00eb na ndihmoj\u00eb t\u00eb gjurmojm\u00eb veprimet tona mendore. Nj\u00eb student i suksessh\u00ebm p\u00ebrdor metakognicionin p\u00ebr t\u00eb ditur kur duhet t\u00eb studioj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhe kur ka studiuar mjaftuesh\u00ebm: n\u00eb thelb, pjes\u00eb t\u00eb trurit t\u00eb tij po monitorojn\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb jet\u00ebn e p\u00ebrditshme, pengesa m\u00eb e madhe p\u00ebr metakognicionin \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb psikolog\u00ebt e quajn\u00eb “iluzioni i rrjedhshm\u00ebris\u00eb<\/em>“. Nd\u00ebrsa kryejm\u00eb detyra gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb njohura, ne monitorojm\u00eb performanc\u00ebn ton\u00eb m\u00eb pak rigorozisht; kjo ndodh kur ngasim makin\u00eb, ose palosim rrobat, dhe gjithashtu kur mendojm\u00eb mendime q\u00eb i kemi menduar shum\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb. Studimi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb test duke rishikuar sh\u00ebnimet tuaja, shkruan Fleming, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ide e keqe, sepse \u00ebsht\u00eb ekuivalenti mendor i drejtimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb rruge t\u00eb njohur. “Eksperimentet kan\u00eb treguar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur se testimi i vetes – duke e detyruar veten t\u00eb praktikojm\u00eb pyetjet e provimit, ose t\u00eb shkruajm\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb dim\u00eb – \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb efektive<\/em>,” shkruan ai. Truku q\u00ebndron n\u00eb thyerjen e iluzionit t\u00eb rrjedhshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe n\u00eb nxitjen e nj\u00eb “nd\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsimi p\u00ebr injoranc\u00ebn<\/em>“.<\/p>\n

Fleming v\u00ebren se metakognicioni \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb aft\u00ebsi. Disa njer\u00ebz jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb se t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. Galef beson se, duke “kalibruar” mendjet tona metakognitive, ne mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojm\u00eb performanc\u00ebn ton\u00eb dhe k\u00ebshtu t\u00eb b\u00ebhemi m\u00eb racional\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb librit t\u00eb saj t\u00eb quajtur “Praktika e Kalibrimit<\/em>“, ajo u ofron lexuesve nj\u00eb koleksion deklaratash t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta ose t\u00eb rreme (“Gjitar\u00ebt dhe dinosaur\u00ebt bashk\u00ebjetuan<\/em>“; “Skorbuti shkaktohet nga nj\u00eb deficit i vitamin\u00ebs C<\/em>“); puna juaj \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb peshoni n\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebsin\u00eb e secil\u00ebs deklarat\u00eb, duke treguar gjithashtu n\u00ebse jeni pes\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb, gjasht\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb, shtat\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb, tet\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb ose n\u00ebnt\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb sigurt n\u00eb vendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb tuaj. Nj\u00eb individ i kalibruar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrsosur, sugjeron Galef, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb shtat\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb koh\u00ebs n\u00eb lidhje me p\u00ebrgjigjet, n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb e sigurt shtat\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e pes\u00eb p\u00ebrqind. Me praktik\u00eb, un\u00eb iu afrova mjaft “kalibrimit t\u00eb p\u00ebrsosur<\/em>“: Un\u00eb ende iu p\u00ebrgjigja disa pyetjeve t\u00eb gabuara, por kisha t\u00eb drejt\u00eb se sa e gabuar do t\u00eb isha.<\/p>\n

Ka shum\u00eb metoda t\u00eb kalibrimit. N\u00eb teknik\u00ebn e “bastit ekuivalent”, t\u00eb cilin Galef ia atribuon ekspertit t\u00eb vendimmarrjes Douglas Hubbard, ju imagjinoni se ju jan\u00eb ofruar dy m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar dhjet\u00eb mij\u00eb dollar\u00eb: ose mund t\u00eb vini bast mbi t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn e ndonj\u00eb deklarate (p\u00ebr shembull, q\u00eb makinat vet\u00eb-drejtuese do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb rrug\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb viti) ose t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb verb\u00ebrisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb kuti t\u00eb mbushur me topa me shpres\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb top t\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar. Supozoni se kutia p\u00ebrmban kat\u00ebr topa. Do t\u00eb preferonit t’i p\u00ebrgjigjeshit pyetjes, apo t\u00eb arrini dor\u00ebn n\u00eb kuti? (Un\u00eb do t\u00eb preferoja shanset e kutis\u00eb.) Tani supozoni se kutia p\u00ebrmban nj\u00ebzet e kat\u00ebr topa – a do t\u00eb ndryshonte preferenca juaj? Duke imagjinuar kuti me num\u00ebr t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm topash, mund t\u00eb kuptoni se sa besoni v\u00ebrtet n\u00eb pohimet tuaja. P\u00ebr Galef, kutia q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb “ekuivalente” me besimin e saj n\u00eb af\u00ebrsin\u00eb e makinave vet\u00eb-drejtuese p\u00ebrmban n\u00ebnt\u00eb topa, duke sugjeruar se ajo ka nj\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb p\u00ebrqind besim n\u00eb at\u00eb parashikim. Teknika t\u00eb tilla mund t\u00eb zbulojn\u00eb se njohurit\u00eb tona jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb imta se sa ne e kuptojm\u00eb; thjesht duhet ta shikojm\u00eb m\u00eb nga af\u00ebr. Sigurisht, ne mund t\u00eb nxjerrim detaje q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb aty.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb dish p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb di \u00ebsht\u00eb Racionaliteti 101<\/em>. Kurset e avancuara kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me ndryshimet n\u00eb njohurit\u00eb tuaja. Shumica prej nesh q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb t\u00eb informuar drejtp\u00ebrdrejt – duke marr\u00eb informacion t\u00eb ri. Racionalist\u00ebt b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb, por me vet\u00ebdije, me synimin p\u00ebr t\u00eb rishikuar q\u00ebllimisht hartat e tyre mendore. Sfida \u00ebsht\u00eb se lajmet p\u00ebr territoret e larg\u00ebta rrjedhin nga shum\u00eb burime; faktet dhe opinionet e fresk\u00ebta nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebtrajtshme dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse. N\u00eb dekadat e fundit, racionalist\u00ebt q\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me k\u00ebt\u00eb problem jan\u00eb mbledhur pas pun\u00ebs s\u00eb Thomas Bayes, nj\u00eb matematikan dhe minist\u00ebr i shekullit t\u00eb tet\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb. I ashtuquajturi arsyetim Bayesian-nj\u00eb teknik\u00eb e ve\u00e7ant\u00eb e t\u00eb menduarit, me zhargonin e vet dallues-\u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb de rigueur <\/em>(fr\u00ebng. t\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsis\u00eb<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Ka shum\u00eb m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpjeguar arsyetimin Bayesian – mjek\u00ebt e m\u00ebsojn\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb dhe statisticien\u00ebt n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb tjet\u00ebr – por ideja themelore \u00ebsht\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb. Kur vjen informacioni i ri, ju nuk d\u00ebshironi q\u00eb ai t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsoj\u00eb informacionin e vjet\u00ebr me shumic\u00eb. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, ju d\u00ebshironi q\u00eb ajo t\u00eb modifikoj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb tashm\u00eb e dini n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatshme. Shkalla e modifikimit varet nga besimi juaj n\u00eb njohurit\u00eb tuaja ekzistuese dhe nga vlera e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb reja. Arsyetuesit Bayesian fillojn\u00eb me at\u00eb q\u00eb ata e quajn\u00eb probabiliteti “paraprak”, p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb di\u00e7ka e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, dhe pastaj zbulojn\u00eb n\u00ebse kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb ta rregullojn\u00eb at\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Merrni parasysh shembullin e nj\u00eb pacienti, q\u00eb ka rezultuar pozitiv p\u00ebr kancerin e gjirit – nj\u00eb rast tekstesh t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorura nga Pinker<\/em> dhe shum\u00eb racionalist\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Faktet e p\u00ebrcaktuara jan\u00eb t\u00eb thjeshta. Prevalenca e kancerit t\u00eb gjirit n\u00eb popullat\u00ebn e grave – “norma baz\u00eb” – \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqind. Kur kanceri i gjirit \u00ebsht\u00eb i pranish\u00ebm, testi e zbulon at\u00eb n\u00eb 90 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb koh\u00ebs. Testi gjithashtu ka nj\u00eb norm\u00eb pozitive false prej n\u00ebnt\u00eb p\u00ebrqind: dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, n\u00ebnt\u00eb p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb koh\u00ebs jep nj\u00eb rezultat pozitiv, kur nuk duhet. Tani, supozoni se nj\u00eb grua rezulton pozitive. Cilat jan\u00eb shanset q\u00eb ajo t\u00eb ket\u00eb kancer?<\/p>\n

Kur mjek\u00ebt aktual\u00eb i p\u00ebrgjigjen k\u00ebsaj pyetjeje, raporton Pinker<\/em>, shum\u00eb thon\u00eb se gruaja ka nj\u00eb shans n\u00ebnt\u00ebdhjet\u00eb p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebr ta pasur at\u00eb. N\u00eb fakt, ajo ka rreth nj\u00eb shans n\u00ebnt\u00eb p\u00ebrqind. Mjek\u00ebt e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen gabim sepse ata po i japin shum\u00eb pesh\u00eb informacionit t\u00eb ri (rezultatet e testit) dhe jo mjaftuesh\u00ebm at\u00eb q\u00eb dinin para se t\u00eb dilnin rezultatet – fakti q\u00eb kanceri i gjirit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb dukuri mjaft e rrall\u00eb. P\u00ebr ta par\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb intuitive, ju ndihmon t\u00eb ndryshoni rendin e fakteve tuaja, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb informacioni i ri t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb vend krenarie. Filloni duke imagjinuar se ne kemi testuar nj\u00eb grup prej nj\u00eb mij\u00eb grave: dhjet\u00eb do t\u00eb ken\u00eb kancer t\u00eb gjirit dhe n\u00ebnt\u00eb do t\u00eb marrin rezultate pozitive t\u00eb testit. Nga n\u00ebnt\u00ebqind e n\u00ebnt\u00ebdhjet\u00eb gra q\u00eb jan\u00eb pa kancer, tet\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e n\u00ebnt\u00eb do t\u00eb marrin test pozitiv t\u00eb rrem\u00eb. Tani mund t’i lejoni vetes t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndroheni n\u00eb nj\u00eb grua q\u00eb ka rezultuar pozitive. P\u00ebr t\u00eb llogaritur shanset e saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb test pozitiv t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, ne ndajm\u00eb numrin e testeve pozitive q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb tregojn\u00eb kancerin (n\u00ebnt\u00eb) me numrin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb testeve pozitive (n\u00ebnt\u00ebdhjet\u00eb e tet\u00eb). Kjo na jep rreth n\u00ebnt\u00eb p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n

Arsyetimi Bayesian \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb qasje ndaj statistikave, por ju mund ta p\u00ebrdorni at\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb interpretuar t\u00eb gjitha llojet e informacionit t\u00eb ri. N\u00eb or\u00ebt e para t\u00eb 26 shtatorit 1983, sistemi i paralajm\u00ebrimit t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm t\u00eb Bashkimit Sovjetik zbuloi nisjen e raketave balistike nd\u00ebrkontinentale nga Shtetet e Bashkuara. Stanislav Petrov, nj\u00eb oficer detyre dyzet e kat\u00ebr vje\u00e7, pa paralajm\u00ebrimin. Ai u akuzua p\u00ebr raportimin tek epror\u00ebt e tij, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt ndoshta do t\u00eb kishin nisur nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrsulm b\u00ebrthamor. Por Petrov, i cili sipas t\u00eb gjitha gjasave nuk kishte d\u00ebgjuar kurr\u00eb p\u00ebr Bayes, megjithat\u00eb p\u00ebrdori arsyetimin Bayesian. Ai nuk lejoi q\u00eb informacioni i ri t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktonte krejt reagimin e tij. Ai arsyetoi se probabiliteti i nj\u00eb sulmi n\u00eb \u00e7do nat\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar ishte i ul\u00ebt – ndoshta, i krahasuesh\u00ebm me probabilitetin e nj\u00eb mosfunksionimi t\u00eb pajisjeve. Nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht, duke gjykuar cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e alarmit, ai vuri re se ishte n\u00eb nj\u00eb far\u00eb m\u00ebnyre jo bind\u00ebse. (Vet\u00ebm pes\u00eb raketa ishin zbuluar – sigurisht q\u00eb sulmi i par\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte i gjithansh\u00ebm?) Ai vendosi t\u00eb mos e raportonte alarmin dhe shp\u00ebtoi bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Arsyetimi Bayesian n\u00ebnkupton disa “praktika m\u00eb t\u00eb mira”. Filloni me figur\u00ebn e madhe, duke e rregulluar at\u00eb fort n\u00eb mendjen tuaj. Jini t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm kur integroni informacione t\u00eb reja dhe mos nxitoni n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundime. Vini re kur pikat e reja t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave ndryshojn\u00eb dhe nuk ndryshojn\u00eb supozimet tuaja baz\u00eb (shumic\u00ebn e koh\u00ebs, ato nuk do t’i ndryshojn\u00eb ato), por mbani sh\u00ebnim se sa shpesh k\u00ebto supozime duken t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuara nga ajo q\u00eb ka t\u00eb re. Kujdes nga fuqia e lajmeve alarmante dhe vazhdoni duke e v\u00ebn\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kontekst m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb, t\u00eb bot\u00ebs reale.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb kuptim, parimi kryesor \u00ebsht\u00eb mise en place<\/em> (fr\u00ebng. themelimi<\/em>). Mbani informacionin e gatuar k\u00ebtu dhe informacionin e pap\u00ebrpunuar atje; mbani mend se p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00ebsit e pap\u00ebrpunuar shpesh zvog\u00eblojn\u00eb mbi nxeht\u00ebsin\u00eb. Por fuqia e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb e qasjes Bayesian nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb procedurale; \u00ebsht\u00eb se z\u00ebvend\u00ebson faktet n\u00eb mendjen ton\u00eb me probabilitete. Aty ku t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht t\u00eb bindur se GMO-t\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija, ose se Jack \u00ebsht\u00eb i besuesh\u00ebm, ose se armiku \u00ebsht\u00eb Euroazia, nj\u00eb Bayesian i cakton probabilitetet k\u00ebtyre propozimeve. Ajo nuk nd\u00ebrton nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb pal\u00ebvizshme t\u00eb bot\u00ebs; n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, duke p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuar vazhdimisht probabilitetet e saj, ajo i afrohet nj\u00eb llogarie m\u00eb t\u00eb dobishme t\u00eb realitetit. Gatimi nuk b\u00ebhet kurr\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Zbatuar p\u00ebr probleme specifike – A duhet t\u00eb investoni n\u00eb Tesla? Sa i keq \u00ebsht\u00eb varianti Delta? – teknikat e promovuara nga shkrimtar\u00ebt e racionalitetit jan\u00eb sqaruese dhe t\u00eb fuqishme. Por l\u00ebvizja e racionalitetit \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje shoq\u00ebrore; racionalist\u00ebt sot formojn\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb nganj\u00ebher\u00eb quhet “bashk\u00ebsia e racionalitetit<\/em>” dhe, si ungjilltar\u00eb, ata shpresojn\u00eb t\u00eb rrisin madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e tij. Komuniteti i racionalitetit ka gjuh\u00ebn e vet gjuh\u00ebsore. N\u00ebse nj\u00eb racionaliste d\u00ebshiron t’ju b\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb kompliment t\u00eb madh, ajo mund t’ju thot\u00eb se e keni b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb “rishikoj\u00eb paraardh\u00ebsit e saj<\/em>” – dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb disa nga supozimet e saj t\u00eb justifikuara m\u00eb par\u00eb. (N\u00eb hart\u00ebn e saj mendore, nj\u00eb varg mund\u00ebsish ka fituar ose ka humbur lart\u00ebsin\u00eb probabiliste.)<\/p>\n

I nj\u00ebjti racionalist mund t\u00eb flas\u00eb p\u00ebr mbajtjen e nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamjeje “n\u00eb margjin\u00eb” – nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se nj\u00eb ide apo fakt do t\u00eb merret parasysh, si nj\u00eb lloj rregullimi i m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm, her\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr kur vjen informacion i ri. (Ekonomist\u00ebt p\u00ebrdorin konceptin e “dobis\u00eb margjinale” p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar se si i vler\u00ebsojm\u00eb gj\u00ebrat n\u00eb seri: nacho<\/em> i par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i lezetsh\u00ebm, por dobia margjinale e secil\u00ebs nacho<\/em> shtes\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet n\u00eb krahasim me at\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb krahu bualli.) Ajo mund t\u00eb flas\u00eb p\u00ebr “azhurnimin” e opinioneve t\u00eb saj – nj\u00eb lokacion gazmor dhe largpam\u00ebs, i huazuar nga praktika statistikore e “p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsimit Bayesian”, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn racionalist\u00ebt e p\u00ebrdorin p\u00ebr t\u00eb destigmatizuar aktin e pranimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb gabimi. N\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim, kjo gjuh\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb atmosfer\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebndshme t\u00eb q\u00ebllimshme, duke ngjallur ndjenj\u00ebn e nj\u00eb ngrehine q\u00eb po nd\u00ebrtohet. “Sa her\u00eb q\u00eb vjen nj\u00eb histori, q\u00eb m\u00eb b\u00ebn t\u00eb azhurnoj paraardh\u00ebsit e mi<\/em>,” shkroi ekonomisti Tyler Cowen, n\u00eb vitin 2019, n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjes Jeffrey Epstein<\/a>. “Un\u00eb jam tani, n\u00eb diferenc\u00eb, m\u00eb i prirur p\u00ebr pik\u00ebpamjen se ajo q\u00eb mban shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz n\u00eb sjellje t\u00eb mir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht inercia.<\/em>”<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Silicon Valley, njer\u00ebzit veshin bluza q\u00eb thon\u00eb “Update Your Priors<\/em>” (Aktualizo p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsit\u00eb tuaja<\/em>), por t\u00eb folurit si racionalist nuk t\u00eb b\u00ebn t\u00eb till\u00eb. Nj\u00eb person mund t\u00eb fluturoj\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me normat baz\u00eb, me t\u00eb cilat ai \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i njohur, ose t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ai po rishikon paraardh\u00ebsit e tij kur, n\u00eb fakt, ai ka vet\u00ebm mendime t\u00eb zakonshme, t\u00eb vendosura. Google e b\u00ebn t\u00eb leht\u00eb projektimin e gjith\u00ebdijshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb gabuar. Nj\u00eb racionalist mund t’u jap\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve dhe vetes p\u00ebrshtypjen se ka lexuar dhe tretur nj\u00eb n\u00ebn-specialitet t\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb akademik, sikur t\u00eb kishte fituar nj\u00eb doktoratur\u00eb (Ph.D.) n\u00eb nj\u00eb jav\u00eb; prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb, ai nuk do t\u00eb dij\u00eb se cil\u00ebt studiues u besohen koleg\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre dhe cil\u00ebt injorohen, ose \u00e7far\u00eb u tha pas or\u00ebsh n\u00eb konferenc\u00ebn e vitit t\u00eb kaluar. Ekziston nj\u00eb ndryshim midis leximit t\u00eb operacionit dhe faktit t\u00eb qenit kirurg, dhe p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsit\u00eb e kirurgut jan\u00eb ato p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat ne me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb kujdesemi.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, Cowen – nj\u00eb lexues mbinjer\u00ebzor, blogu i t\u00eb cilit, Revolucioni Marginal, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb destinacion i p\u00ebrditsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr racionalist\u00ebt e etur p\u00ebr informacion – i tha Ezra Klein se l\u00ebvizja e racionalitetit ka adoptuar nj\u00eb “m\u00ebnyr\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht specifike kulturore p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb bot\u00ebn<\/em>“. \u00cbsht\u00eb kultura, pak a shum\u00eb, e fitimit t\u00eb argumenteve n\u00eb forume n\u00eb internet. Cowen sugjeroi q\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar realitetin nuk duhet vet\u00ebm t\u00eb lexoni p\u00ebr t\u00eb, por ta shihni at\u00eb nga dora e par\u00eb; ai i ka bazuar t\u00eb par\u00ebt e tij n\u00eb vizitat n\u00eb rreth nj\u00ebqind vende, pasi u kap n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje mes nj\u00eb bande braziliane t\u00eb drog\u00ebs dhe policis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb, ne duam q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit n\u00eb pushtet t\u00eb jen\u00eb racional\u00eb. E megjithat\u00eb ndjenja se racionalist\u00ebt n\u00eb nj\u00ebfar\u00eb m\u00ebnyre nuk jan\u00eb prekur nga p\u00ebrvoja direkte, mund ta b\u00ebj\u00eb iden\u00eb e nj\u00eb racionalisti me fuqi shqet\u00ebsuese. A do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs i till\u00eb i zhytur n\u00eb nj\u00eb matric\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash, m\u00eb shum\u00eb i shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur hart\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb realitetit sesa p\u00ebr njer\u00ebzit e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb realitet? N\u00eb nj\u00eb skic\u00eb t\u00eb dyshes britanike t\u00eb komedis\u00eb Mitchell dhe Webb, nj\u00eb minist\u00ebr i qeveris\u00eb i ngarkuar me p\u00ebrfundimin e nj\u00eb recesioni pyet analist\u00ebt e tij, n\u00ebse ata kan\u00eb konsideruar “vrasjen e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebrve<\/em>“. “Un\u00eb nuk jam duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb – un\u00eb jam vet\u00ebm duke th\u00ebn\u00eb drejtojeni at\u00eb p\u00ebrmes kompjuterit dhe shikoni n\u00ebse do t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb<\/em>,” u thot\u00eb ai atyre. (Pasi thon\u00eb se nuk do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, ai propozon “skijimin blu<\/em>” nj\u00eb alternativ\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb pakuptimt\u00eb: “Ngrini VAT dhe vritni t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebrit<\/em>.”) Kjo karikatur\u00eb i b\u00ebn jehon\u00eb nj\u00eb skepticizmi t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur t\u00eb racionalitetit si nj\u00eb sistem vlerash.<\/p>\n

Kur Akti i Kujdesit t\u00eb P\u00ebrballuesh\u00ebm po kalonte n\u00ebp\u00ebr Kongres, konservator\u00ebt u shqet\u00ebsuan se propozime t\u00eb ngjashme do t\u00eb dilnin n\u00eb “panelet e vdekjes”, ku komitetet e ekspert\u00ebve racional\u00eb do t\u00eb sugjeronin uljen e kostove t\u00eb kujdesit sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor duke vrar\u00eb t\u00eb moshuarit. Kjo frik\u00eb, natyrisht, u mpreh nga fakti se ne me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb shpenzojm\u00eb shum\u00eb para p\u00ebr kujdesin sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor n\u00eb vitet e fundit t\u00eb jet\u00ebs. I takon racionalist\u00ebve t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb pun\u00ebn e pak\u00ebndshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb treguar t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetat e pak\u00ebndshme; ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb duke b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ata duken pak shum\u00eb t\u00eb rehatsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb jet\u00ebn ton\u00eb personale, dinamika \u00ebsht\u00eb e ndryshme. Miqt\u00eb tan\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb fuqi mbi ne; m\u00eb e mira q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb na shtyj\u00eb n\u00eb drejtime m\u00eb t\u00eb mira. Elizabeth Bennet, protagonistja e “Krenaris\u00eb dhe Paragjykimeve<\/em><\/a>“, \u00ebsht\u00eb inteligjente, imagjinare dhe e zhytur n\u00eb mendime, por \u00ebsht\u00eb Charlotte Lucas, shoqja e saj m\u00eb e mir\u00eb, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb racionale. Charlotte p\u00ebrdor arsyetimin Bayesian. Kur njohja e tyre e re, z. Darcy, \u00ebsht\u00eb fodulle dhe refuzuese n\u00eb nj\u00eb fest\u00eb, ajo me nxitje e nxit Lizzy-n t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb mend tablon\u00eb e madhe: Darcy \u00ebsht\u00eb “nj\u00eb djal\u00eb shum\u00eb i mir\u00eb, me familje, pasuri, gjith\u00e7ka n\u00eb favor t\u00eb tij<\/em>“; n\u00eb takimin me t\u00eb, prandaj, p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsia e dikujt duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit e pasur, me pamje t\u00eb mir\u00eb shpesh mburren n\u00eb festa; nj\u00eb sjellje e till\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb, n\u00eb vetvete, zbuluese.<\/p>\n

Kur Charlotte martohet me zotin Collins, nj\u00eb klerik nervoz me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb sigurta, Lizzy \u00ebsht\u00eb e tmerruar nga p\u00ebrkimi – por Charlotte thekson se suksesi i nj\u00eb martese varet nga shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb ata financiar\u00eb, dhe sugjeron q\u00eb shanset e saj p\u00ebr lumturi jan\u00eb “Aq e drejt\u00eb sa shumica e njer\u00ebzve mund t\u00eb mburren me hyrjen n\u00eb gjendjen e martes\u00ebs.<\/em>” (N\u00eb koh\u00ebt moderne, normat baz\u00eb do ta mb\u00ebshtesnin at\u00eb: megjith\u00ebse pothuajse pes\u00ebdhjet\u00eb p\u00ebrqind e martesave p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb n\u00eb divorc, p\u00ebrqindja \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt n\u00eb mesin e njer\u00ebzve me t\u00eb ardhura m\u00eb t\u00eb larta.) \u00cbsht\u00eb pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shembullit t\u00eb Charlotte q\u00eb Lizzy shikon m\u00eb nga af\u00ebr z. Darcy dhe zbulon se ai ka t\u00eb meta n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb parashikueshme, por i mir\u00eb n\u00eb ato t\u00eb pazakonta. Personazhet Rom-com shpesh kan\u00eb miq pasionant\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt u thon\u00eb atyre t\u00eb ndjekin zemrat e tyre, por Jane Austen e dinte q\u00eb v\u00ebrtet ne kemi nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr miq racional\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb fakt, si\u00e7 tregon Charlotte, m\u00ebnyra e nj\u00eb racionalisti t\u00eb mir\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb mir\u00ebsjelljen, e cila l\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet p\u00ebr cil\u00ebsi m\u00eb t\u00eb thella. Galef p\u00ebrshkruan nj\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim tipik t\u00eb mir\u00ebsjellur n\u00eb uebfaqen tashm\u00eb jofunksionale ChangeAView. Nj\u00eb bloger mashkull, pasi iu tha se nj\u00eb nga postimet e tij ishte seksiste, n\u00eb fillim u mbrojt me forc\u00eb. Pastaj, n\u00eb nj\u00eb postim pasues t\u00eb titulluar “Pse \u00ebsht\u00eb e besueshme, q\u00eb un\u00eb jam i gabuar<\/em>“, ai p\u00ebrmblodhi me kujdes argumentet m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb kund\u00ebr tij; p\u00ebrfundimisht, ai njoftoi se ishte i bindur p\u00ebr gabimin e rrug\u00ebve t\u00eb tij, duke k\u00ebrkuar falje jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb i kishte ofenduar, por edhe p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb ishin n\u00eb an\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebr arsye q\u00eb ai tani besonte se ishte gabim. E impresionuar nga qasja e tij e sinqert\u00eb dhe me mendje t\u00eb hapur, Galef shkruan, ajo i d\u00ebrgoi blogerit nj\u00eb mesazh privat. Lexues, ata u fejuan.<\/p>\n

Komuniteti i racionalitetit mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis t\u00eb mir\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb roman t\u00eb Austenit t\u00eb shkruar n\u00eb vitin 2021. Megjithat\u00eb, ne mund t\u00eb pyesim, sa vler\u00ebsim duhet t\u00eb marr\u00eb racionaliteti p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr Galefin dhe burrin e saj s\u00eb bashku? Ajo luajti nj\u00eb rol, por racionaliteti nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebnyra e vetme p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar tiparet q\u00eb ajo perceptoi. Un\u00eb e kam admiruar prej koh\u00ebsh mikun tim Greg p\u00ebr racionalitetin e tij, por q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb kam p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuar pik\u00ebpamjet e mia. Un\u00eb mendoj se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb racionaliteti, si i till\u00eb, ai q\u00eb e b\u00ebn at\u00eb kurioz, t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, t\u00eb ndersh\u00ebm, t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm, perceptues dhe t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, por e kund\u00ebrta.<\/p>\n

N<\/span>\u00eb “Racionaliteti<\/em>“, “Mend\u00ebsia Scout<\/em>” dhe libra t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm, irracionaliteti shpesh paraqitet si nj\u00eb form\u00eb e sjelljes s\u00eb keqe, e cila mund t\u00eb korrigjohet p\u00ebrmes edukimit ose shoq\u00ebrizimit. Kjo me siguri \u00ebsht\u00eb e drejt\u00eb n\u00eb disa raste, por jo n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha. Nj\u00eb pranver\u00eb, kur isha n\u00eb shkoll\u00eb t\u00eb mesme, nj\u00eb kardinal fluturoi n\u00eb dritaren e dhom\u00ebs son\u00eb t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs dhe n\u00ebna ime – e cila ishte perceptuese, qesharake dhe inteligjente, por jo ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht racionale – u bind se ishte nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb ajo ulej n\u00eb nj\u00eb kolltuk, duke e pritur, v\u00ebzhguese dhe e shqet\u00ebsuar. Ngjarje t\u00eb ngjashme – nj\u00eb kart\u00ebmonedh\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh e gjetur n\u00eb tok\u00eb, nj\u00eb gom\u00eb e plasur n\u00eb an\u00ebn e majt\u00eb t\u00eb makin\u00ebs dhe jo n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb – mund t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb hije mbi gjendjen shpirt\u00ebrore t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr dit\u00eb, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb jav\u00eb. Si votuese, prind, pun\u00ebtore dhe shoqe, ajo ishte e shtyr\u00eb nga emocionet. Ajo kishte nj\u00eb personalitet t\u00eb stuhish\u00ebm, poetik dhe t\u00eb trazuar. Un\u00eb nuk mendoj se ajo do t\u00eb ishte ndihmuar shum\u00eb nga nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr p\u00ebr racionalitetin. N\u00eb nj\u00eb far\u00eb kuptimi, libra t\u00eb till\u00eb jan\u00eb shkruar p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb racional\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Babai im, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, \u00ebsht\u00eb mjek dhe shkenc\u00ebtar me profesion dhe me prirje. Kur isha f\u00ebmij\u00eb, ai m\u00eb tha se Santa Claus nuk ishte i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb shum\u00eb koh\u00eb para se ta kuptoja; ne fol\u00ebm p\u00ebr fizik\u00ebn, kompjuter\u00ebt, biologjin\u00eb dhe “Star Trek”, duke r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord se ne ishim Spocks, jo Kirks. Prind\u00ebrit e mi u divorcuan dekada m\u00eb par\u00eb. Por koh\u00ebt e fundit, kur n\u00ebna ime duhej t\u00eb dilte nga nj\u00eb spital n\u00eb nj\u00eb qend\u00ebr rehabilitimi, dhe un\u00eb pothuajse u paralizova nga konfuzioni n\u00eb lidhje me at\u00eb, q\u00eb mund ose duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebj p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur se ku do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundonte, ai m\u00eb duroi, me metod\u00eb dhe me gjykim p\u00ebrmes skenar\u00ebve n\u00eb telefon, duke eksploruar \u00e7do shteg t\u00eb pirunit, duke renditur pashmangshm\u00ebrin\u00eb nga mund\u00ebsit\u00eb, duke i mbajtur t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb kok\u00ebn e tij dhe duke e komunikuar at\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb paanshme. E gjith\u00eb kjo ishte n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me karakterin e tij.<\/p>\n

Kam kaluar dekada duke u p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb jem racional. Pra, pse u ndjeva i paralizuar nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrpiqesha t\u00eb drejtoja kujdesin e n\u00ebn\u00ebs sime? Gregu m\u00eb thot\u00eb se, n\u00eb biznesin e tij, nuk mjafton t\u00eb kesh mendime racionale. Dikush q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebsuar t\u00eb meditoj\u00eb p\u00ebr pyetjet n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e lir\u00eb, mund t\u00eb luftoj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb m\u00ebsuar dhe arsyetuar kur ora po troket; dikush q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i mir\u00eb n\u00eb arritjen e p\u00ebrfundimeve racionale mund t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb i gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruaj\u00eb n\u00eb vij\u00ebn me pika kur t\u00eb vij\u00eb koha. Koleg\u00ebt e Gregut nga fondet mbrojt\u00ebse e p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb si “komerciale” – nj\u00eb kompliment – dik\u00eb q\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm racional, por n\u00eb koh\u00eb dhe vendimtar. Nj\u00eb racionalist efektiv duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shkurtoj\u00eb tregun e hipotekave sot, ose t\u00eb angazhohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb rehabilitimi tani, edhe pse jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb me probabilitete Bayesian. Un\u00eb e di, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb racionale, se koronavirusi nuk paraqet ndonj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr djalin tim t\u00eb vog\u00ebl, dhe megjithat\u00eb un\u00eb ende hezitova para se ta regjistroja n\u00eb \u00e7erdhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb vjesht\u00eb, ku ai mund t\u00eb b\u00ebnte miq. Ju mund ta dini se \u00e7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e drejt\u00eb, por ende p\u00ebrpiqeni ta b\u00ebni at\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Vazhdimi i p\u00ebrfundimeve tuaja \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb. Por nj\u00eb racionalist duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb gjithashtu “metarational”, i gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb dor\u00ebzoj\u00eb \u00e7el\u00ebsat e t\u00eb menduarit kur dikush tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i informuar ose trajnuar m\u00eb mir\u00eb. Edhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se sa ting\u00ebllon. Intelektualisht, ne e kuptojm\u00eb se shoq\u00ebria jon\u00eb komplekse k\u00ebrkon ndarjen e pun\u00ebs praktike dhe asaj njoh\u00ebse. Ne pranojm\u00eb q\u00eb hartat tona t\u00eb njohurive jan\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuara jo vet\u00ebm nga inteligjent\u00ebt tan\u00eb, por nga koha dhe interesat tona. Megjithat\u00eb, ashtu si populist\u00ebt e Gurrit, racionalist\u00ebt mund t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb revoltat e tyre kund\u00ebrth\u00ebn\u00ebse, duke gjetur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur se mendimet e askujt, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 opinioneve t\u00eb tyre, nuk mund t\u00eb mbrohen.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb l\u00ebnien t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb, si n\u00eb vazhdim, i gjith\u00eb personaliteti i dikujt p\u00ebrfshihet. E pash\u00eb t\u00eb mundur t\u00eb isha metaracional me baban\u00eb tim jo vet\u00ebm sepse respektoja mendjen e tij, por sepse e dija se ai ishte nj\u00eb person i mir\u00eb dhe i kujdessh\u00ebm, q\u00eb kishte n\u00eb zem\u00ebr interesat m\u00eb t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr mua dhe t\u00eb n\u00ebn\u00ebs sime. Un\u00eb kisha besim se, ndryshe nga ministri n\u00eb skic\u00ebn Mitchell dhe Webb, ai do t\u00eb kujdesej mjaft p\u00ebr t\u00eb menduar thell\u00eb p\u00ebr problemin tim. Kujdesi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i mjaftuesh\u00ebm, natyrisht. Por, midis nesh t\u00eb dyve, ne kishim p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00ebsit e duhur – besimin reciprok, shqet\u00ebsimin e nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb p\u00ebrkushtim t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt p\u00ebr arsyen dhe veprimin.<\/p>\n

Realitetet e racionalitetit jan\u00eb p\u00ebrul\u00ebse. Di gj\u00ebra; dua gj\u00ebra; p\u00ebrdor ato q\u00eb di p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb d\u00ebshiron.<\/strong> Duket si nj\u00eb formul\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb. Por, n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, ajo harton nj\u00eb seri sfidash t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzuara. N\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb fakteve, ne duhet t\u00eb mjaftohemi me probabilitetet. N\u00eb pamund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u2019i ditur t\u00eb gjitha p\u00ebr veten, ne duhet t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetemi te t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt q\u00eb kujdesen mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u2019i ditur. Ne duhet t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb nd\u00ebrsa jemi ende t\u00eb pasigurt dhe duhet t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00eb – ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb individualisht, por shpesh s\u00eb bashku. Q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb e gjith\u00eb kjo, racionaliteti \u00ebsht\u00eb i nevojsh\u00ebm, por jo i mjaftuesh\u00ebm. T\u00eb menduarit drejt \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e pun\u00ebs.\u2666<\/p>\n

Botuar n\u00eb botimin e shtypur t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb 23 gushtit 2021, me titullin “Mendoni p\u00ebrmes saj<\/em>“.<\/p>\n

Joshua Rothman, redaktori i ideve n\u00eb newyorker.com<\/a>, ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb The New Yorker q\u00eb nga viti 2012.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb qenit “metaracional” \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb dish, kur t\u00eb lejosh dik\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb. Ilustrim nga Francesco Ciccolella Analet e Hetimit Sfida e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb kesh t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, por t\u00eb dish se sa i gabuar mund t\u00eb jesh. Nga Joshua Rothman, 16 gusht 2021 – NewYorker.com – P\u00ebrktheu Arben \u00c7okaj Kam takuar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,35,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artikuj","category-kulture","category-ne-plan-te-pare"],"yoast_head":"\nPse \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb jesh racional? - FJALA e LIR\u00cb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jehonashqiptare.al\/fjala\/pse-eshte-kaq-e-veshtire-te-jesh-racional\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pse \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb jesh racional? - FJALA e LIR\u00cb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb qenit “metaracional” \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb dish, kur t\u00eb lejosh dik\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb. 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